On a global scale, the paint and coatings industry is expected to grow in the coming years, and the North American market is no exception.
The global paint and coatings industry was valued at about $206.56 billion in 2023. With a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 4.5%, the market should grow to approximately $304 billion by 2032, according to analysis conducted by Fortune Business Insights.
Further data from the Home Improvement Research Institute’s U.S. Home Improvement Products Market Forecast for June shows an inflation-adjusted growth rate of roughly 2.3% for paints and preservatives and 2.2% for paint sundries and other supplies from 2025 to 2028.
When it comes to application, the architectural segment is forecasted to lead the coatings market over the next few years, with demand from both new construction and home improvements contributing to the growth.
What are the Major Groups of Coatings and Paints?
There are several ways to categorize paint and coatings, including the end-user industry, or type of application; the resin used; geography; and technology.
The acrylic resin segment accounts for the largest market share in terms of resin categories, with a projected CAGR of 5.49% through 2031, according to Straits Research. In particular, polyurethane resin is expected to contribute greatly to the expanding market size, thanks to its corrosion- and abrasion-resistant properties.
Based on technology, waterborne coatings consume the largest market share. Paint and coatings used for architectural application—such as covering commercial and residential buildings and other structures—comprise the largest segment by end-user industry.
The paint and coating manufacturing industry experienced a sharp spike in prices in 2021 and 2022, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's Producer Price Index (PPI). Since the middle of 2023, however, producer prices have started to slowly decline, although not nearly to pre-2021 levels.
The main players in the global market include The Sherwin-Williams Company; Behr; Akzo Nobel; PPG Industries Inc.; Axalta Coating; and Jotun. In this partially consolidated market, 12 companies hold more than 60 percent of the market share.
What Factors Influence the Future of the Paints and Coatings Industry?
The North American paint and coatings market is expected to experience noteworthy growth, particularly in the commercial sector. Government investments into public infrastructure projects and increasing construction activities will contribute to this growth over the next few years.
Here are a few other trends and factors influencing the future of the coatings and paint industry:
1. Refocusing on Industrial and Architectural Product Development
One outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic that continues to influence the paint and coatings industry is the increased demand for antimicrobial coatings.
Not only are antimicrobial paints and coatings desirable in healthcare facilities and public spaces, but there’s also a growing trend toward designing and living in healthy homes. In indoor spaces—such as kitchens and bathrooms—individuals and families are expressing an increased desire for mold-resistant paints and coatings designed with antimicrobial additives that can reduce the risk of infection, prevent the spread of harmful microbes, enhance longevity, and improve indoor air quality (IAQ).
Additionally, innovations among hydrophobic coatings, or self-cleaning coatings, are taking the industry by storm and being worked into various applications within the fenestration industry. As the name implies, they are fabricated with water repellents to help with durability, mitigating discoloration, and preventing corrosion. According to Global Market Insights, the hydrophobic coatings market has a forecasted CAGR of 5.5% and is expected to surpass $3 million by 2030.
However, raw materials costs have remained high, which impacts every stakeholder’s purchasing power and willingness to evaluate alternative options. Changes in raw material wallet share at the manufacturer level are anticipated as a result of lingering production constraints.
2. Regulations Regarding VOCs
Sustainability is also a driving factor in the paint and coatings sector. There is a regulatory push affecting the industry to reduce volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which can extend shelf life and improve durability but also negatively impact air quality and human wellbeing.
Regulations and consumer demand have influenced a shift toward alternative and low-VOC products and constraints on production processes using products with VOCs to improve the sustainability of paints used for home improvement.
Additionally, in 2022, the Occupational Health and Safety Administration released a new set of standards related to crystalline silica, which is often found in paints and coatings. It is designed to address the health and safety hazards associated with this ingredient.
These changes have driven innovations towards new product options. As regulations are tightened in North America and Western Europe, building and construction markets like the Asia-Pacific region will drive growth of existing paint and coatings product lines that are losing favor in western markets.
3. A Rise in Demand for ‘Green Coatings’ Among Customers and Industry Stakeholders
Research shows that sustainability also influences customer preferences and purchase behaviors, with the global “green coatings” market expected to reach nearly $203 billion by 2032, according to Precedence Research. As a product category, green coatings include those that are made using recycled or renewable materials and designed with processes that reduce carbon footprint and decrease waste.
In light of environmental concerns, new technologies and sustainable alternatives are becoming common in the industry.
For example, water-based and powder coatings are becoming more popular in a variety of applications. Not only do these materials have a natural lack of VOCs, but they’re also more eco-friendly than conventional coatings. Also, pigging technology is seen as a must-have for paint and coatings manufacturers. Pigging, or liquid product recovery, solutions are appropriate for water- and solvent-based paints, pigments and coatings. They have a variety of tangible benefits, from waste minimization to increasing yields and cost savings.
4. Addressing Customer Preferences and Safety Concerns
Safety is a similar concern, both for homeowners and interior and exterior painters. Pro and DIY customers prioritize products that are not known to cause negative side effects to human health and safety. One example of a safe and renewable ingredient that’s gained popularity is Decovery, a plant-based resin for paints and coatings that’s produced by DSM.
Additionally, with climate concerns on the rise, there will be increased demands for coatings materials that are more resistant to heat, UV radiation, and corrosion. Manufacturers should consider strengthening these attributes in their paints and coatings to enhance the longevity of the material, whether it’s applied to vehicles, buildings, or tools.
Demand is also increasing for intumescent coatings over cementitious coatings. As demand for more durable building materials increases from customer demand for low-maintenance product options, this preference is expected to continue. There’s also a notable preference for lightweight building materials, which are more susceptible to damage, and this is driving innovation among brands with fire-resistance-positioned product lines.
HIRI has further researched Pro and Homeowner shopping trends in the paint and coatings industry and makes a wide range of data available to its members in order to aid strategic decision making for manufacturers.
5. Changes in Production Processes
Other environmental challenges and goals impacting industry trends include waste minimization, process efficiency enhancement, and using renewable materials. Refining products to meet these concerns is one way paint and coatings manufacturers can increasingly appeal to trade professionals.
Across industries, companies are looking for equipment and materials that can increase efficiency, versatility and reliability. In recent years, this has evolved to include digitalization so processes can be operated remotely and with better automation. According to Polymers Paint Colour Journal, digital technologies are transforming various aspects of the industry, from formulation and color matching to marketing and distribution.
As industrial-sized fabrication and applications make gains in North America and Western Europe, building and construction markets like the Asia-Pacific region could drive unit sales growth of existing paint and coatings product lines that rely on the use of brush and roller applicators and less-automated application processes.
6. Disruptions in the Supply Chain
Another challenge related to the production process is supply chain issues—a residual impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, CoatingsTech magazine shared that some suppliers of raw materials are already out of stock through the end of 2024; others are able to meet demand but with notably long lead times. The hardship caused by supply-chain disruptions further manifests in increased costs, both for industry professionals and their customers.
While there has been some recovery over the past 18 months, the fact remains that the global supply chain continues to be fragile and more readily susceptible to disturbance than in the past. Given the current socio-political and economic unrest internationally and within the U.S., coatings manufacturers and suppliers have to be preemptive about the potential for shortages and higher shipping costs, not to mention the heightened cost of crude oil.
Brands with innovative finished goods and suppliers closer in proximity are expected to have the upper hand, even against well-established companies in the painting and coatings industry. Lower-cost alternatives have room to take market share as price sensitivity increases and as buyers continue to indicate a willingness to evaluate more options.
7. Use of AI for Development of Coating Materials
Data is influencing research and development in new ways. Some companies are using AI and machine learning to analyze new compounds for paints and coatings more quickly and efficiently. This data gives developers more data to inform the production process.
Meanwhile, AI has also emerged more predominantly over the past couple of years to help with optimization and automation in the manufacturing process, from quality control and analysis to detecting defects. Coating manufacturers are utilizing AI technologies and tools to enhance their data collection and optimize their process, which should result in higher-quality materials at lower costs to customers, along with less waste and higher efficiency.
Noteworthy Industry Purchases and Positioning Developments
During the past couple of years, the industry has witnessed a couple of key developments among its major players, especially as it relates to vertical integration and sheer survival.
For example, according to Fortune Business Insights, AkzoNobel Powder Coatings released their Interpon Futura Collection in early 2023. The collection—consisting of three new color palettes—is aimed at supporting the company’s sustainability program by not emitting solvents or VOCs.
Also last year, the H.B. Fuller Company acquired the UK-based Apollo, which manufactures primers, coatings, and liquid adhesives for the construction and roofing industries. Meanwhile, PPG also acquired Arsonsisi’s powder coatings division.
Conducting Customized Market Share Research
Market reports point toward a paint and coatings industry that is returning to its pre-pandemic levels of stability and even projected to experience considerable growth over the next few years.
As you strategize for your paint and coating company’s future, it is important to conduct customized market research. The Farnsworth Group can help you get the specific data and meaningful insights you need to define opportunities for acquisition, distribution or changes to your product lines to maintain healthy brand share.
