Doors and windows are two important elements of a building’s envelope, and they directly affect how the structure performs on multiple fronts, not to mention the health and wellbeing of inhabitants.
In the fenestration industry, a few objectives frequently consume the conversation: price, aesthetics, security, indoor air quality (IAQ), and energy performance.
These characteristics will continue to influence the market in a variety of ways over the next few years, driving product innovation, research and development (R&D), and how manufacturers and retailers market their products to industry professionals and homeowners alike.
What are the Top Trends in the Fenestration Industry?
To strategically plan for the future, it’s important to consider what’s happening in the construction industry at large, along with emerging technologies and evolving customer preferences. All of these factors should inform your business decisions.
Here are a handful of trends influencing the fenestration industry over the next five years:
Market Trends for Windows and Doors
1. New Construction Forecast to Increase Pace in 2025
The windows and doors market continues to experience growth. It is projected to expand from $221.9 billion in 2023 to $348.4 billion in 2032, due in large part to urbanization, population growth, energy efficiency regulations, renovation, disaster resilience, aging infrastructure, and architectural trends, according to Market Research Future.
However, the housing market across the U.S. is currently a bit rough in terms of new construction. Single-family starts have slowed in 2024, with building permits—a leading indicator for housing starts—dropping steadily since the beginning of the year, from 1,031 in January to 941 in June, according to stats from the Federal Reserve Economic Data.
The good news is housing starts are projected to pick up pace in 2024, in light of a positive de-urbanization trend, which should drive demand for new doors and windows and benefit the overall fenestration market. After a decline in 2024, Multi-Family housing projects also are forecast to increase, although less significantly than single-family homes, in 2025.
2. Remodeling Remains Strong as Infrastructure Ages
With home starts declining in 2024, and the housing inventory being outpaced by demand, homeowners and commercial building owners are turning toward repairs and remodels to extend the longevity of existing buildings. This can often lead to demand for replacements and repairs to windows and doors, which play a large role in how a building functions, from security and internal comfort to energy efficiency.
Economists at the Bank of America have predicted the lock-in effect we’re observing could persist for another six to eight years, despite marginal cuts to federal interest rates. Mortgage borrowers already have a significant amount of equity in their home and favorable interest rates, so they’re choosing to stay put with intentions to improve their home, as opposed to moving to a different house.
In addition to downward mobility and the lock-in effect, improvements will also be required as the housing stock in the U.S. continues to age. According to the most recent data from the American Community Survey (ACS), the median age of owner-occupied homes is more than 40 years old.
That means the aging housing stock is ripe for remodeling opportunities. Within the 20- to 39-year-old age range, buildings become primed for new window and door replacements. These types of projects can also make homes more acceptable and comfortable for aging in place; for example, automated windows and doors that are easily operable for individuals, regardless of strength or mobility.
With this favorable long-term view in the remodeling and renovation industry, companies can be prepared with fenestration products to meet demand.
Supply Channel Trends for Windows and Doors
3. Supply Chain Struggles are Lifting, but Labor Remains a Challenge
Over the past several years, companies and contractors have been trudging through an obstacle course of shortages, delays, and limitations on raw materials and goods. While these issues created a hardship for professionals in the fenestration industry, it also opened the market in some ways, motivating professionals and homeowners to be more willing to try new brands and products.
Supply chain problems seem to be lessening and lead times normalizing for construction projects, but manufacturing companies and retailers in the industry should stay vigilant in light of ongoing external factors that could disrupt the market.
Additionally, skilled labor shortages continue to be an ongoing challenge for building professionals. Companies across home improvement fields are cautious about the amount of work they are willing and able to take on. However, our research shows that company leaders are relatively confident they will be able to balance the labor they have with the projects they’re closing over the next year.
Even still, the labor shortage has put an emphasis on automation and install efficiency—when possible—to optimize the time and efforts of smaller crews. In terms of product development, companies also are investing in products that not only are easy to install, but also challenging to install wrong, lowering the entry level for laborers while also expanding DIY options for homeowners.
On the channel side, there also will be an ongoing need for improved recruiting and training, as well as enhanced employee retention tactics, as manufacturers and retailers deal with their own labor shortages.
4. Mergers and Acquisitions are on the Rise
In response to high raw material costs, windows and door manufacturers are increasingly seeking out strategic acquisitions and partnerships that enable them to achieve market share growth.
As with other sectors of the building industry, bottlenecks along the supply chain and rising costs of raw materials pose a challenge for manufacturers, contractors and consumers in 2024. Commodities like steel, PVC resin and aluminum stemming are increasing in price.
With costs rising year over year, many independent window manufacturers have been pushed out of the market. They are unable to compete with large manufacturers that are able to vertically integrate their distribution network. Concurrently, the severe fragmentation of the window market with regional and local stakeholders has slowed the expansion of large manufacturers’ efforts to expand distribution nationwide. Vertical integration of these regional stakeholders, whether it be wood, vinyl, or metal fabrication, is expected to continue.
For example, in the past year or so, Miter Brands entered into an agreement to acquire PGT Innovations; Pella acquired Lawson Industries; Blue Ridge Construction Capital invested in Euro-Wall Systems; and AmesburyTruth acquired Lawrence Industries. These types of consolidations and acquisitions enable companies to diversify their product lines, expand geographically, and capture a higher market share to meet rising demand in the traditional and specialty fenestration market.
Additionally, we’ve seen more European products entering the fenestration market in the U.S. as a result of increasing demand, particularly along the East Coast.
Customer Preferences for Windows and Doors
5. Customers Seek Wider Range of Aesthetic Options
The function of windows has improved greatly over the past several decades. Now, homeowners, architects, and builders are seeking a wider selection in terms of style and aesthetics.
Customers want more options for these important components of the building envelope. Demand for an increasingly varied range of styles, colors, and applications is now driving product specification and selection. With architects and contractors more willing than ever before to try a new brand, the one with the perfect product option has preference for the spec.
Customers also seek window and door options that allow them to capture more natural light and enhance their indoor space. Demand is shifting towards products and brands that provide products suitable for large window walls and convertible spaces.
6. Energy Efficiency and Sustainability Motivate Innovation
According to findings from the Home Improvement Research Institute’s Homeowner Trends in Energy Efficiency, Smart Home and Sustainability Study, three-quarters of homeowners emphasize the importance of energy efficiency when it comes to their residential space. They are motivated by factors such as convenience, comfort, and cost savings. Additionally, the report shows that more than one-third of homeowners plan to invest in energy-efficient appliances and smart home systems in the next five years.
Energy efficiency also holds significant weight in the multifamily and commercial sectors. As a result, R&D funding should be channeled into innovative, eco-friendly window and door technology that supports sustainability and energy savings.
Some of the most prominent technologies in the fenestration industry that address—or enhance—energy efficiency include triple-pane window units, fourth-surface low-E glass, gas fill, thermally broken aluminum, and dynamic glass.
Utility companies that have been offering rebates for homeowners to tackle window replacement projects have seen adoption in varying geographic segments. Manufacturers who work with the stakeholders in their distribution channel to educate the end customer about local rebates can expect to see increasing unit sales in those areas.
Another development in this area is the new Energy Star 7.0 requirements from the Environmental Protection Agency’s Energy Star Program. Although these specifications for residential windows, doors, and skylights were established in the fall of 2022, there continue to be questions in the industry about how to meet the standards and also how to market and sell these products to consumers, which means there is plenty of growth potential in this area.
Because of the direction the market is moving, astute windows manufacturers will start educating the installers in their contractor networks, sooner rather than later, on these emerging technologies. By shifting their mindsets about the sufficiency of Energy Star Ratings, market saturation can be accelerated when more affordable options are produced.
7. Customers Scout for High-Impact-Resistant Window Ratings
Along with energy-efficient options—which can bolster a building’s resale value and save owners money over time—consumers also value impact-resistant windows that can reduce potential damage from natural causes while simultaneously acting as a security measure.
Extreme weather events are on the rise. That includes high winds, flooding, fires, and more. As a result, we’ve observed an increasing interest in resilient infrastructure, as well as the implementation of more stringent regulations in some areas. Take, for instance, the Department of Energy’s Better Buildings initiative or the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety’s FORTIFIED program. Although voluntary, these construction programs set standards designed to help make buildings more resilient.
Meanwhile, demand is expanding for window-replacement projects in high-wind speed zones, such as the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. According to data published in the National Glass Association’s Window+Door, the number of windows consumed by homes in 140-plus mph wind-speed zones will increase from six million windows in 2023 to eight million in 2028 and expand from 10% share of national demand to 11%, presenting an opportunity for above-average market growth.
Anything that a property owner can do to decrease the potential for disruption, inconvenience, and maintenance costs because of weather-related incidents, the better. Further, construction professionals who seek to reduce warranty claims and callbacks are seeking out options that are more durable.
8. Improving Wellness Continues to Trend
Similarly, a majority of people want to improve their indoor air quality by managing household dust that results from poorly sealed windows and doors, according to findings from joint research that our team at The Farnsworth Group conducted with the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. These components are often the weakest link in a building’s thermal envelope.
Along with ensuring proper ventilation, high-quality windows and doors also impact the health and wellbeing of inhabitants by helping with temperature management; reducing problems related to moisture and mold; tempering glare and optimizing acoustics; and providing a connection to natural light and the outdoors that can regulate circadian rhythms.
From the report, we can see that energy efficient windows and doors are one of the most top-of-mind projects for homeowners planning for the future. The impetus is on manufacturers and distributors to develop and market products that address healthy home priorities within the market.
9. Safety is a Concern in Residential and Commercial Sectors
There is also a rising demand for security and safety-oriented solutions in the fenestration industry. This is not just for residential buildings and homes, but also public and commercial buildings, from schools and financial institutions to government buildings and retail establishments. There is some expectation that these solutions and features won’t just be preferable in the coming years but also potentially mandated in order for buildings to be up to code.
Either way, there is an opportunity for manufacturers and retailers to invest in products that can give inhabitants a sense of safety and security in light of theft and break-ins, looting, and civil unrest. Incorporating such features into windows and doors not only adds a tangible layer of protection but also could factor into securing resale value, lowering insurance rates, and other favorable outcomes. Some features we’re seeing emerge in this area include remote locking and unlocking technology; sensor technology that triggers alarms; and impact-rated glass.
Product Development Trends for Windows and Doors
10. Increasing Investment in Solar Window Development
Another example of a viable sustainability innovation is a coating that can make a window double as a transparent solar panel.
In light of evolving consumer demand—along with supply problems—it is important to embrace emerging window and door innovations. Manufacturers can address sustainability at every point of the product development process.
The challenge is to temper the higher price points often associated with eco-friendly products. That could take place at the product development stage, or it’s a matter of sharing with suppliers and consumers the well-articulated advantages of sustainable systems, products and practices.
Custom Market Research for Doors and Windows Manufacturers and Suppliers
While overlying trends in the fenestration industry can give you a solid look at what’s happening in the market and where it’s heading in the next few years, it’s important to dig even deeper to obtain the specific data and insights you need for tailored decision making and planning for your brands. The Farnsworth Group offers proven research solutions, combined with our rich industry knowledge, to help you keep up with shifting demands, new technologies, and disruptive competitors.
